Ukraine

Mental health must precede conflict resolution

The majority of Ukrainians have experienced trauma to varying degrees. Practitioners emphasize that psychological wellbeing must be established as the primary foundation before traditional conflict resolution work. Teachers face cumulative professional and emotional overload, expected to remain emotionally attentive to children while lacking sufficient personal resources themselves.

Divergent war experiences create profound divides

The stark differentiation in how Ukrainians experience the war generates profound questions of legitimacy and moral authority. In cities like Dnipro, diverse populations with radically different experiences have converged including veterans, internally displaced persons, residents who volunteer, those who contribute financially, and those who do neither. This creates constant division into different types of Ukrainians based on who suffered to what extent and who is involved in the war.

Trust erosion towards state institutions

Only a handful of social institutions retain public confidence, and the government is not among them. This trust deficit operates between citizens and central authorities, between local governments and residents, and increasingly among citizens themselves. Recent tracking shows that by December 2024, trust in the Government had fallen to 20% and trust in the Verkhovna Rada to 13%, whereas trust in volunteers remained at 81% and trust in the Defense Forces at 92%.

Absence of compelling vision for post-war future

The state's failure to articulate a compelling vision of Ukraine's future leaves society exhausted not merely by war itself, but by the inability to see where sacrifices are leading. Without a shared vision, society fragments into competing groups pursuing narrow interests. Respondents anticipate that post-war challenges, including reconciliation, economic recovery, and addressing accumulated grievances, may prove more divisive than the war itself.

Information warfare systematically exploits societal divisions

Russian influence operations identify authentic tensions and systematically deepen them through coordinated information campaigns. Rather than promoting specific viewpoints, operatives simply amplify any conflict, using bot networks to boost critical posts about any political figure or policy, creating an atmosphere of generalized grievance and cynicism. Prolonged stress and war fatigue diminish critical thinking capacity.

Moldova

Deep geopolitical polarization threatens stability

he full-scale Russian invasion forced Moldovans to choose sides on previously ambiguous geopolitical questions. Society split from the outset between those supporting Ukraine and those sympathizing with Russia, with these divisions penetrating families and creating taboo topics. Electoral results on European integration revealed an almost even split in society, with the Moldovan Orthodox Church providing institutional support for pro-Russian narratives through approximately 80% of parishes under Russian Patriarchate jurisdiction.

Transnistria faces cascading economic collapse

The failure to achieve harmonious bilingualism over 30 years has created deep resentment. In Gagauzia and Taraclia, the majority of the population does not speak Romanian at all. Russian-speaking citizens struggle to access government services and navigate official documentation, while Romanian-speakers perceive continued Russian monolingualism as political defiance rather than practical constraint.

Socioeconomic insecurity drives vulnerability

Economic precarity creates conditions where resource competition overrides solidarity. Energy costs became a particular flashpoint, with the expensive transition to the EU energy platform creating immediate hardship that citizens experience viscerally. The gap between income levels is growing, creating effectively separate social worlds. People in Chișinău and those in small rural villages exist in fundamentally different worlds with divergent access to services, employment, information, and political influence.

Information manipulation operates with impunity

Moldova faces full-spectrum information assault operating with freedom difficult in wartime Ukraine. TikTok emerged as a particularly problematic platform with minimal regulation allowing blatant lies to proliferate. Pro-Russian channels operate continuously, and when blocked, they reappear under new names within hours, demonstrating coordinated efforts and state-level resources.